In FX Risk Spikes and then Reverses

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Market Drivers November 26, 2019
USDJPY loses 109.00 despite positive trade news
Cable reversers on latest UK polling data
Nikkei 0.35% Dax -0.297%
UST 10Y 1.74%
Oil $58/bbl
Gold $1457/oz
BTCUSD $7224

Europe and Asia:
No Data

North America:
USD Consumer Confidence 10:00

A bit of a topsy-turvy night in FX today with risk first spiking in early Asian session dealing and then giving up much of its gains as the night wore on.

USDJPY verticalized to 109.20 on news from China Global Times that the US and China have reached a broad agreement on trade talks but the issues of tariffs still remain outstanding. But the pair quickly gave up the gains and dropped back below 109.00 figure as trade fatigue set in.

109.00 remains a critical area for the pair and it needs to close above that level in order to fully establish a bullish bias, but so far the moves through that level have only been tentative and the jury is still out on whether it can clear that hurdle.

Meanwhile, in the UK the latest series of polls have shown a tightening of the gap between Labor and Tories and the news was not well received by the market which took the pair all the way to 1.2850 on fears of a hung Parliament. We continue to believe that cable may have set the highs for the year and as deteriorating data and continued political chaos envelop the pair it will come under further selling pressure ahead of the election.

In the US session today the calendar is light, and FX will likely take its cues from equities which could see a round of profit-taking after making all-time highs yesterday. For now, the tentative trade continues in both FX and equities as markets are content to tread water.

Boris Schlossberg
Managing Director

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