Why Pound Could See Profit Taking

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Market Drivers October 23, 2019
Cable hits profit-taking
More defensive tone in risk
Nikkei 0.34% Dax 0.06%
UST 10Y 1.74%
Oil $54/bbl
Gold $1494/oz
BTCUSD $8018

Europe and Asia:
No Data

North America:
No Data

Markets were very quiet today with most of major pairs in defensive mode as profit-taking and risk-off flows dominated trade in Asian and early European dealing.

With no eco data anywhere on the G-11 calendar, today dealing was very muted but with a decidedly risk-off tone as the greenback gained across the board except against the yen. The cautious trade is reflective of some profit-taking after nearly a week of strong rallies in risk that saw euro and most of the commodity dollars gain between one and two big figures against the buck.

As to the pound, the pair was under pressure again after Parliament refused to ratify the speeded-up timetable for the PM Johnson’s Brexit deal forcing yet another extension from the EU. The market is clearly feeling Brexit fatigue at this point and the lack of closure on the issue could weigh on cable for the next few sessions.

The pair remains well bid, as the existential threat of hard Brexit has been avoided, but the prospects of endless amendments to the deal, the possibility of new elections and even the very slight chance of a second referendum will all create a cloud of uncertainty over the pair in the next few weeks which could push it lower.

No releases on the docket today, trading could remain muted unless equity flows show some volatility. For now, FX remains in a state of flux as markets await the next catalysts from US-China negotiations, central bank guidance, and Brexit resolution to make directional bets.

Boris Schlossberg
Managing Director

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