Market Drivers December 11, 2019
YouGov shows a slide in polls
All eyes on FOMC
Nikkei -0.08% Dax -0.27%
UST 10Y 1.83%
Europe and Asia:
USD CPI 8:30
USD FOMC 14:00
Cable crumbled in early Asian session trade when a new poll suggested that Tory lead has shrunk to 28 seats from 68 seats projected earlier.
The YouGov MRP poll which takes a much more granular view of the election by trying to project seat wins rather than just popular sentiment has shown that Mr. Johnson’s lead has tightened as some missteps on the campaign trail may have hurt him.
The awkward exchange between Mr. Johnson and the reporter who confronted him with video of a four-year-old boy forced to sleep on the floor due to lack of bed space in NHS may have taken its toll in the final days of the campaign, but ultimately the outcome may lie in turnout which could skew the polling models one way or the other.
It’s hard to tell who can inspire their voter base more since both Mr. Johnson and Mr. Corbyn are far more reviled rather than loved by the UK voters and tomorrow results may come down as much to a protest vote as anything else and to that point, Mr. Johnson still holds the edge over Mr. Corbyn if for no other reason than the fact that Mr. Johnson has been able to clearly enunciate his position, while the limp Mr. Corbyn has not been able to enunciate much of anything ever since he took over the Labor leadership.
Cable continued to slide into the London open with shorts hoping to press the 1.3100 figure, but unless there is any additional news on the election the pair is likely to consolidate at those levels until the early results come in tomorrow. If the YouGov poll is correct and Tories are unable to win a workable majority – or worse UK sees a hung Parliament cable could quickly drift to 1.2800 into the year-end as the Brexit saga moves into a new decade.