US Data Deluge Could Determine USDJPY Fate

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Market Drivers November 27, 2019
USDJPY tries to pull away from 109.00
Cable weakens ahead of a key poll
Nikkei 0.28% Dax -0.087%
UST 10Y 1.74%
Oil $58/bbl
Gold $1457/oz
BTCUSD $7123

Europe and Asia:
No Data

North America:
USD Durable Goods 8:30
USD Chicago PMI 8:30
USD GDP 8;30
USD Personal Spending 10:00

Cable was appreciably lower ahead of a key UK poll while USDJPY tried to pull away from the 109.00 level as traders awaited a deluge of data from the US on the final full trading day of the week.

The pound was plumbing the lows of the session at 1.2836 by midday Asian trade as markets remained nervous ahead of a key YouGov MRP poll which correctly predicted the seats in Parliament during the last election cycle.

Although Boris Johnson and the Tories continue to enjoy double-digit leads against Jeremy Corbyn and Labor, the key question that concerns the market is whether Mr. Johnson can translate that support into a workable majority in UK Parliament. If the Tories are unable to win enough seats the UK may be stuck with a hung Parliament or perhaps even a working coalition minority government that could delay the Brexit process.

Cable could get a pop if the poll numbers prove favorable, but as we noted many times this week we continue to believe that regardless of the headlines the pair may have seen the highs for the year as market participants begin to appreciate the slowdown in the UK economy. For now, the 1.3000 is likely to cap any rally.

Meanwhile, in the US the market will see a data dump ahead of the holiday with GDP and Personal Spending key releases of focus. If the numbers beat forecast they would confirm the budding narrative that the US economy is coming out of its stall and will help USDJPY pull further away from 109.00 towards 109.50 as the week proceeds.

Boris Schlossberg
Managing Director

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