USD/JPY Takes out 115.00 – Will US GDP Support?

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Market Drivers January 27, 2017
USDJPY takes out 115.00
EU Money Supply rises
Nikkei 0.34% Dax -0.34%
Oil $53/bbl
Gold $1183/oz.

Europe and Asia:
AUD AU PPI 0.5% vs. 0.2%
EUR EU Money Supply 5.0% vs. 4.9%

North America:
USD Durable Goods 8:30

USDJPY took out the 115.00 figure in morning Tokyo trade today fueled by reports that BOJ would boost its buying of 5-10 year JGBs from 410B yen to 450B yen.

The news helped lower the 10 year JGB rates to 0.078% from 0.10% prior and pushed USD/JPY to a high of 115.00. But the pair couldn’t hold the highs and was trading below the 115.00 figure by morning London dealing. As we have been noting all week the 115.00 level is crucial for the resumption of the dollar rally. USD/JPY has been stymied in its recent attempts to break through that level which has become somewhat of a cement ceiling for the pair as of late.

Today US GDP figures will be the key economic event of the week and could determine if the USDJPY breakout is for real or yet another failure as this key resistance point that could precipitate a steeper correction next week. The forecast is for a much more muted reading of 2.2% versus 3.5% the period prior.

US GDP growth has been remarkably stable for the past seven years at approximately 2.1% rate. Last quarter the numbers were boosted by surge in soybean orders that helped cut the trade deficit and in turn increased the GDP. This quarter forecasters are not expecting any such positive surprises but the focus will be on consumer spending and business investment.

The key question for the market is whether the surge in consumer and business enthusiasm post President Trump’s election has translated into greater economic activity. So far the evidence is mixed and today’s GDP data will be a key tell in whether the Trump trade in the dollar has legs. A positive print of 2.5% or better could send USD/JPY convincingly above the 115.00 figure and set up the momentum going into next week’s NFPs. For now the market remains quiet and steady as we await the report.

Boris Schlossberg
Managing Director

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