Risk On But For How Long?

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Risk on Bid continues but stalls a bit
UK, EU final PMIsbut better
Nikkei 1.29% Dax 1.75%
UST 10Y 0.70
Oil $37/bbl
Gold $1716/oz
BTCUSD $9522

Asia and the EU
GBP Markit Services 29 vs. 28
EUR PMI Composite 32.3 vs. 31.4

North America Open
USD ADP 8:15
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing 10:00

Still risk on in the markets in Asian and early Europen trade but by Frankfurt morning the move starting to stall ahead of key levels in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

Overnight investors took solace in the fact that protests in the US were largely peaceful tonight with little of the looting and property damage seen the last few nights although protestors in major cities ignored the curfews as they marched on for justice.

The tone in the markets remains generally positive as traders steel themselves for a slew of economic data from the US. Today the calendar brings the ADP report and the ISM Non-Manufacturing data both of which are expected to show very negative readings with ADP projected to register a loss of -9M jobs and ISM to print deep in the contraction territory at 35.

Still what will matter to the traders will be the delta or the rate of change. ISM is forecast to improve from 30 to 35 and ADP job losses are expected to less than half of last month’s reading.

The delta was mildly positive in Europe with EU final PMI and UK Services PMI both coming in slightly better. That has helped both euro and cable to remain bid with the former crossing the 1.1200 big figure ahead of the ECB presser tomorrow. But Aussie which has been the poster child for this risk rally was off the highs as it gave up the .6900 level.

Overall the tone in the market remains hopeful as investors bet on global recovery supported by ultra-easy monetary policy. For now, any positive change in the data should provide a further boost to risk assets but the rally is starting to stall ahead of S&P 500 3100 level and any disappointment in the data could trigger profit-taking as the day proceeds.

Boris Schlossberg
Managing Director

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