HAFTA No More US and Canada Reach a Deal

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Market Drivers October 1, 2018
US and Canada reach deal on NAFTA
UK PMI beats
Nikkei 0.52% Dax 0.68%
Oil $73/bbl
Gold $1185/oz.
Bitcoin $6600

Europe and Asia:
GBP UK PMI 53.8 vs. 52.5

North America:
USD ISM Manufacturing 10:00

US and Canada reached a last-minute deal to preserve NAFTA as a trilateral deal sending loonie to fresh four month highs as USDCAD tumbled below the 1.2800 figure in morning European dealing.

The deal extracted concessions from both sides, as Canada gave in on dairy imports, agreeing to terms originally negotiated for TPP, while US agreed to maintain Article 19 which will serve as an extrajudicial forum to resolve any specific trade disputes. US also agreed to not impose any future tariffs in autos.

The new agreement will now be known as the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement and should go a long way towards alleviating investor concerns about Canadian growth. The country’s growth has been surprisingly strong in the wake of trade war turmoil of the past year, but today’s events should shift the focus to BOC and the potential for further monetary tightening. BoC has been the only other G-7 central bank aside from the Fed to have maintained a continuous rate hike policy, and now with trade concerns dismissed investors are likely to bid up the prospect of further rate hikes at the next meeting later this month, especially if this Friday’s labor data beats forecast.

Elsewhere, UK PMI Manufacturing data beat to the upside coming in at 53.8 vs. 52.5 but for pound traders the focus this week will be on the Conservative Party conference to see just how much support PM May continues to enjoy. If the Tories essentially reject her Chequers plan for compromise Brexit with EU, chances of a hard Brexit will increase markedly and cable could quickly resume its slide testing support below the 1.3000 figure.

In North America today, the market will get a look at ISM Manufacturing which is expected to ease but still remain at a highly expansionary 60 rate. If the number meets consensus USDJPY which has been well bid tonight could start to pull away from the 114.00 level and begin its march towards 115.00 as traders continue to bet on strong US growth into the end of the year.

Boris Schlossberg
Managing Director

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