Anti-Dollars Rally Hard

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Market Drivers November 1, 2018
UK PMI worst since Brexit
Anti-dollar trades rally
Nikkei -1.06% Dax 0.63%
Oil $64/bbl
Gold $1225/oz.
Bitcoin $6350

Europe and Asia:
AUD AU Trade 2.3B vs. 1.7B
GBP UK PMI Manufacturing 51.1 vs.53.8

North America:
GBP BOE Decision 7:00
USD Weekly Jobless 8:30
USD ISM Manufacturing 10:00

Most of the majors rallied hard against the dollar in Asian and early European trade with euro, cable and Aussie registering the biggest gains.

Cable was up more than 150 pips on hopes that UK and EU reached an agreement on financial services. Finance is the lifeblood of the UK economy and any barriers towards facilitating transactions with the Continent would likely deal a deathblow to UK GDP. Both parties are clearly interested in making a deal but nothing official has been announced so far and UK will clearly need to acquiesce to EU rules if it wants unfettered access to capital markets.

Meanwhile, the UK data has continued to deteriorate with PMI Manufacturing coming in at 51.1 versus 53.8 eyed as new orders fell to their worst level since the Brexit vote. Rob Dobson, Director at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey noted, “October saw a worrying turnaround in the performance of the UK manufacturing sector. At current levels, the survey indicates that factory output could contract in the fourth quarter, dropping by 0.2%. New orders and employment both fell for the first time since the Brexit vote as domestic and overseas demand was hit by a combination of Brexit uncertainties, rising global trade tensions and especially weak demand for autos. “Alongside the halt in hiring, the increasingly defensive position of UK manufacturers was also reflected in the slight decreases in purchasing activity and inventory holdings, which firms linked to protecting cash flow and cost-cutting.

The markets quickly shrugged off the news, however, taking cable above 1.2900 as the hopes for some sort of Brexit deal are driving trade for now.

The euro meanwhile bounced off the 1.1300 level which was the 2018 low on short covering and start of month flows but there is little fundamentally to propel it higher as eco data and political wrangling remain the order of the day. Still the pair continues to carve out some sort of bottom around these levels as traders make the bet that the worst may be over for the unit. However, a break below the 1.1300 level would likely trigger fresh wave of selling and the could see 1.1000 by year end if the situation in EU does not improve.

On the docket today, the market will hear from BOE though nothing new is expected and the meeting should be a non-event. In North America the ISM Manufacturing data is due 14 and could show a small slowdown in production but unless the miss is material the impact on USDJPY should be minimal. The pair has backed off the 113,00 figure but remains well anchored ahead of the NFPs and should stay supported in this range until Friday’s labor data.

Boris Schlossberg
Managing Director

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