Dollar Recovery Continues; USDJPY 111.00 in View

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Market Drivers August 31, 2017
AUD capex better
EZ Inflation
Nikkei 0.72% Dax 0.59%
Oil $46/bbl
Gold $1312/oz.

Europe and Asia:
AUD Capex 0.8% vs. 0.3%
EUR CPI 1.5% vs. 1.4%

North America:
CAD GDP 8:30
USD Weekly jobless 8:30
USD PI/PS 8:30
USD PCE Deflator 8:30
USD Chicago PMI 9:45
USD Pending Home 10:00

FX markets were generally subdued on the last trading of the month with most of the majors contained to 30-40 pips ranges throughout Asia and early European trade. There was little newsflow to push prices either way and the economic data was generally in line across the board.

In Australia, the much anticipated Private Capital Expenditure numbers came in at 0.8% vs. 0.3% indicating that GDP figures for Q2 coming next week should be better than expected and the news provided a mild boost to Aussie against the kiwi although the unit continued to weaken against the dollar slipping below the .7900 figure.

In Europe the CPI data printed at 1.5% versus 1.4% which suggested that core inflation is picking up momentum albeit very slowly. EURUSD popped above the 1.1900 briefly in response to the data.

Overall, however, the pro-dollar tone continued to dominate trade as USDJPY rose above 110.50 and both euro and cable remained near session lows. The greenback continues its recovery from oversold levels and it’s clear that the market only looking at US data now to boost the case for further short covering.

To that end, today will see a plethora of second tier US releases including Personal income and spending, Chicago PMI and Pending Homes data. The most important of all data points, however, will be the PCE deflator due 12:30 GMT. The PCE is Fed’s favorite measure of inflation and if the numbers prints a bit better than 0.1% expected, it could provide the fuel for a USDJPY rally to 111.00.

With ADP printing above the 200K mark expectations for tomorrow’s NFP report have improved with sentiment towards the dollar considerably more constructive than at the start of the week. If today’s eco data dump provides further evidence of steady to improving US fundamentals then the dollar rally should continue into the North American close.

Boris Schlossberg
Managing Director

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