Today, Trade is the Key to FX Trade

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Market Drivers July 25, 2018
AU CPI misses
GE IFO slightly better
Nikkei 0.46% Dax -0.16%
Oil $68/bbl
Gold $1226/oz.
Bitcoin $8300

Europe and Asia:
AUD AU CPI 0.4% vs. 0.5%
EUR GE IFO 101.7 vs. 101.5

North America:
USD New Homes Data 10:00

FX pairs remained stuck in their ranges in Asian and early European trade today with most pairs only seeing 20 pips worth of movement throughout the night as consolidation in the currency market continued for third straight day.

In Australia the cooler than expected inflation readings sunk the hopes of Aussie bulls which rallied the pair towards .7450 ahead of the release only to see it fall below .7400 in the aftermath. Australian CPI came in at 0.4% versus 0.5% eyed. The trimmed mean inflation remained at 1.9% well within the 2%-3% range of RBA target suggesting that the central bank will remain neutral for the foreseeable future.

The news took the air out of the sails for Aussie longs who hoped to nudge the pair towards the .7500 figure but the pair will now consolidate at the .7400 level and will likely trade off the latest trade news as it has effectively become the bellwether for investor sentiment on that issue.

Global trade is likely to be the primary catalyst for any price movement today as EC President Juncker is due to visit the White House today for a round of talks. Ahead of the meeting Trump has tweeted that he is hoping for a drop of all tariffs between the two largest markets in the world and while Mr. Juncker has not tipped his hand, any type of compromise that actually lowers trade barriers would be viewed positively by the market.

Still, the situation remains tense and there are reports that EU is preparing retaliatory tariffs on 20B worth of US goods. Yesterday’s announcement by Trump that US will provide 12B in assistance to farmers was a tacit admission that his policies are starting to take a toll on his political base, so perhaps there will be motivation on both sides to work out some sort of a trade deal as the day proceeds.

Boris Schlossberg
Managing Director

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